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Table of contents for "Happy
About Knowing What to Expect in 2007"
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Part I | This
Year’s Predictions | 1 |
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chapter 1 | 2007
Predictions
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Top 10 Trends for 2007
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#01 - Global Warming/Environmental Concerns Effect Business
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#02 - Energy Continues to Take Center Stage
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#03 - The Internet Continues to Grab Mindshare by Getting Incorporated into Daily
Processes
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#04 - The World Continues Going Mobile
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#05 - Marketing Starts Moving from an "Art" to a "Science"
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#06 - The US Dollar Becomes Less Important
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#07 - Capitalism Continues to Spread Throughout the World
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#08 - Rapid Adoption of Mass Customization
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#09 - Software Continues to Morph
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#10 - Online Networking Becomes a Key Business Asset
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Industries/Trends to Watch
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Predictions We Couldn't Resist Including | 3
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| Part
II | Why Should You Believe | 37 |
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2 | Predictability
in Previous Years - 2006: 85% accurate
- 2005:
85% accurate
- 2004: 80% accurate
- 2003: 75% accurate
- 2002:
40% accurate
- 2001: 95% accurate
- 2000: 70%
accurate
- 1999: 70% accurate
- 1998: 65% accurate
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chapter 3 | 2006
Predictions
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Top 10 Trends for 2006
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#01 - Energy issues take a front burner on the world stage.
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#02 - The Internet's democratization effect expands to traditional media.
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#03 - Marketing expenditures and activities continue to shift to the Internet.
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#04 - China's continued growth significantly affects world commerce.
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#05 - Outsourcing continues to expand to other sectors of the economy.
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#06 - Services continues to play a bigger role in Western economies.
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#07 - Usage and proliferation of mobile commerce expands.
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#08 - Adoption of VOIP continues.
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#09 - Employer/employee relationships strengthen for the first time in years.
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#10 - Security and privacy issues raise their heads again.
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Fun Predictions on the Economy:
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Fun Predictions | 41 |
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chapter 4 | 2005
Predictions
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Top 10 Trends for 2005
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#01 - VOIP goes mainstream
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#02 - China's Power and World Economic Influence Grows
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#03 - Working at Home Goes Mainstream While Small Business Thrives
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#04 - Pickup in Offshoring Activity
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#05 - While the World is Shrinking, the World Market is Expanding
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#06 - Increase in Technology Stocks
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#07 - Cell Phones look More and More like PDAs and vice versa
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#08 - Blogging and Social Networking Become Accepted Business Tools
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#09 - Continued Confidence in Using the Internet
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#10 - The World Keeps Changing
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BONUS TRENDS: | 63
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chapter 5 |
2004 Predictions ![](../images/blank.gif)
Top 10 Trends for 2004
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#01 - Virus'/Spam Get Worse, Not Better (correct)
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#02 - Continued Global Economic Dependency and a Backlash Against Offshore
Outsourcing (correct)
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#03 - Internet Telephony Continues Disrupting the Existing Players (correct)
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#04 - For Survival, Companies Continue to Consolidate (correct)
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#05 - Wi-Fi Gets Bigger (correct)
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#06 - Business Continues to Evolve to the Next Level (partial)
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#07 - Some Positive IT, Economic and Stock Market Movement (partial)
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#08 - Security is Still the #1 IT Concern (correct)
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#09 - Social Networking Takes Off (partial)
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#10 - The Term "E-Commerce" Comes Back into Vogue (partial)
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BONUS TREND #1:
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#01 - Software Continues to Change Forever Especially via the ASP Model (correct)
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#02 -Marketing Becomes Important Again (correct) |
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chapter 6 |
2003 Predictions ![](../images/blank.gif)
Top 10 Trends for 2003:
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#01 - The American Psychological Association Announces its Best Year Ever (Correct)
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#02 - Quiet, Yet Continued Strong Growth in E-Commerce (Correct)
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#03 - The Economy Waffles while Folks Look for "the Breakout Event" and to overcome
the dot.bomb Malaise (Mostly Correct)
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#04 - Operational Efficiency Continues to be a Key Corporate Driver (Correct)
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#05 - Specialist are In, Generalists are Out (Correct)
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#06 - The Software Industry has Changed Forever (Correct)
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#07 - Web Services Show Demonstrated ROI (Somewhat, not really yet)
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#08 - Marketing has Changed Forever (Correct)
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#09 - Significant Inroads Made on Eliminating Spam (Slight at Best)
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#10 - Users Will Get More of What They Want (Wishful Thinking)
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BONUS TREND:
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Key Areas to Keep on Eye On Include: Security, Wireless, Real-time Business Intelligence,
Broadband | 99
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chapter 7 |
2002 Predictions ![](../images/blank.gif)
Top 10 Trends for 2002:![](../images/blank.gif)
![](../images/blank.gif) #01 - Increased
Security and Safety Focus: Security through smart chips and retinal identification
will find increased acceptance with the call for a national (and ultimately a
worldwide) Smart Card based identification system will gain significant momentum.(correct)
![](../images/blank.gif) #02 - Revenue
(not at the Expense of Margin) will be the Primary Driver: In addition to
traditional and Internet-based revenue, the metrics of Web-assisted and Web-shifted
revenue will come into vogue. (partial) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#03 - Companies will Start Dropping the "E": The holistic corporation will
realize that business is business, regardless of the medium used to conduct it.
E-Commerce implementations will focus on delivering the total end-to-end solution.
(partial) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#04 - Late 2002 Recovery: After the overall corporate purge of excess and
obsolete inventory in mid-to-late 2001, companies will start reinvesting in the
goods and services it needs to survive and create profitable entities. This, coupled
with the money spent on the US war efforts, will bring a slight US recovery in
late Q3, 2002. (no) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#05 - Major Industry Consolidation: With the capital markets remaining
difficult to raise money, there'll be a continued consolidation in the business
world as both traditional and dot.com companies continue to be acquired or run
out of money and go out of business. (correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#06 - Customer Experience will Become Vogue: Although companies have talked
about the customer being king, this philosophy is paid only lip service in a majority
of companies. In 2002, we'll see the position of CCEO "Chief Customer Experience
Officer" starts to proliferate among companies. The lifetime value of the customer
will be a key focus of the CCEO. (no) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#07 - Functions vs. Features: The user community will pay more attention
to the functions that products deliver as opposed to the features (bells and whistles)
they have. Web services are well positioned to help make this trend a reality.
(correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#08 - Collaborative Commerce Grows and Meets P2P: Companies will continue
to grow their value Web relationships and strive to increase efficiency among
the participants. Peer to peer technology and processes find their way in the
B2B space helping improve the efficiency of many collaborative efforts. Additionally,
there will be an increased focus on sharing useful "confidential" data among participants
of the value Web. (no) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#09 - "Blended Solutions" is the Major New Buzzphrase: Making the transition
from the on-line learning space, blended solutions become vogue as product and
service companies deliver blended (integrated on-line and on-ground) solutions
to their customers. (no) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#10 - "Transparent Commerce" is Another New Buzzphrase: Also being bantered
around as u-commerce (Ubiquitous Commerce), this is where commerce occurs automatically
without getting in the way of our lives. Automatic bridge tolls and stop light
violations, as well as product recommendations from trusted sources that automatically
turn into sales, are good examples of what we'll see. (no) ![](../images/blank.gif)
BONUS TREND #1: ![](../images/blank.gif)
Prediction of key technology/classes of applications that will experience growth:
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Killer Apps: Blended Customer Service Solutions, P2P for both Consumers and Businesses
(Collaborative Commerce), Self-Service for both Consumers and Businesses
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Other Areas of Growth: Security, Instant Messaging Video Conferencing, Smart Card
Identification, IP Telephony Location-based Commerce, Mobile Applications, Collaborative
Commerce, 1x1 Marketing Tied to Metrics, Pay-Per-View Content
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BONUS TREND #2:
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The Value Equation: Companies will start using the Value Equation to ensure they
are creating value today and will continue to do so well into the future (okay,
this one is self-promotion). | 115
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| chapter 8 |
2001 Predictions ![](../images/blank.gif)
#01 - The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same: The tried and
true basics of business will be back – to remind us of the old-fashioned principles
that still seem to work, even in this new Internet-enabled world. Profitability,
revenues and proven processes will be key. (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#02 - The New Economic Environment: Although we are already mired in the
New Economy, we are just at the beginning of the changes, as brick and mortar
companies race to be successful online, and dot.coms try to dethrone established
companies’ brands. There will be more consolidation, hybrids, partnering, and
new business models that will shift the mix and balance of power. (Correct)
![](../images/blank.gif) #03 - A
New Internet-enabled World: In the not too distant future, the use of the
Internet will be routine, rather like electricity, as the comfort level with the
technology and this method of doing business evolves. Not only will more of our
work and personal lives be connected because of the evolving technology infrastructure,
but more integrated as well. Processes and functions that we use in the workplace
will make their way into our homes. A total Internet-enabled world where every
IP appliance can coordinate an exchange transaction with or without a human guide,
is right around the corner. (Partially correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#04 - Customers Rule: With the Internet, customers have gained considerable
power to choose with whom they will do business, where and when. The need for
intense customer focus and exemplary customer service will continue into the future,
as customers remain central to the growth of e-commerce. (Partially correct)
![](../images/blank.gif) #05 - Better,
Faster and Maybe Cheaper: With continued learning and experimentation, companies
will build better products and services by utilizing the multiple capabilities
of their own companies and also their partners. Price may still be a determinant
in customers’ buying decisions, but value received is becoming more important
than price by itself. New ways to conduct business enabled by technology will
lead to many new opportunities for companies, with improved choices for customers
and more efficient payment mechanisms for the exchange of value between parties.
(Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#06 - Business Models and Value Webs: Just when you thought things were
settling down with business models, be prepared for more changes. Improvements
in efficiency of the supply chain and logistics, disintermediation and continuing
complex are part of the future. (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#07 - New Standards and Rules Create Opportunity: There has been much controversy
and discussion about privacy and security and how it affects e-commerce. Quite
often, new regulations and laws can be perceived as just more bureaucracy that
gets in the way of doing business. However, as security issues are mitigated and
standards are commonly deployed for security and privacy, new opportunities will
actually be created for business. (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#08 - Evolving Infrastructure and Tools: Many advances have been made in
integrating front office and back office systems both in a company and via the
ASP/BSP model. Technologies that improve speed, collaboration or integration of
processes will be a requirement for survival and growth in the future. (Correct)
![](../images/blank.gif) #09 - The
New Face of Marketing: As companies continue to wrestle with issues about
online and offline branding, we are entering a new era of personalization. Marketing
will be faced with implementing new approaches in the Internet-enabled world.
(Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#10 - New Dimensions for Growth and Evolution: As today’s leaders make
decisions about tomorrow’s growth, there are many factors at work in this new
environment that will make a huge impact. Technologies such as wireless and portable
computing will provide more ways to access the Internet, and require companies
to provide content accordingly. The world marketplace means greater demand for
products and services, and companies need to figure out how to build businesses
across geographic boundaries. We are faced with much growth in the next few years.
Whether it happens slowly or quickly, we all need to be armed with the lessons
we have learned so far to be better prepared to meet all the challenges of the
brave new world. (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
BONUS TREND: ![](../images/blank.gif)
Peer-to-Peer Commerce Takes Off: Ebay is remarkably successful and first
coined the concept of C-C commerce. Regardless of whether Napster actually survives,
it's existence will have resulted in the morphing of the music industry. Napster
also helped demonstrate that peer-to-peer commerce may be the most widely participated
business model on the Internet. Having passed legislation of digital signatures,
with SET (Secure Electronic Transactions) individuals can swap digital files,
and create an encrypted transaction contract; non-repudiation of the event between
the buyer and seller. Individuals will begin to conduct peer-to-peer commerce
using digital cash, with new and existing players trying to be the financial intermediary.
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chapter 9 |
2000 Predictions ![](../images/blank.gif)
#01 - B-to-B Growth Continues its Dramatic Pace: B-to-B growth will continue
at its dramatic 1999 pace, leading to more liquidity in the B-to-B exchanges and
inter-organizational virtual enterprises. Part of this growth will stem from the
B-to-B practitioners borrowing successful techniques already proven in the B-to-C
marketplace. (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#02 - M&A Activity Escalates: Private, public, traditional and newly created
corporate venture capital funds will increase the pace of mergers and acquisitions.
We will continue to see the "dot.com's" snapping up physical real estate. In addition
to technology and market share as reasons for acquisition, companies will be acquired
for their employee base (technical and managerial). (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#03 - Privacy Concerns Increase: Privacy concerns will increase in the
U.S. as the public becomes more aware of how their Web site activity can be tracked,
profiled, and merged with data collected from multiple off-line sources to reveal
very "personal" information about themselves. (Correct - with a vengence)
![](../images/blank.gif) #04 - Dynamic
Pricing Reaches Most Industries: Dynamic pricing will extend into numerous
industries via the name-your-own-price model (such as Priceline) and the Auction
(such as Ebay) model. (Didn't significantly materialize) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#05 - ASP's Capabilities Expand: ASP's (Application Service Providers)
will continue to increase the quantity and quality of their customers and the
robustness of their service offerings. The ASP model, as it becomes more pervasive,
will lead to a dramatic change in how the software industry produces and distributes
software. (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#06 - Wireless Applications Become More Common: Wireless Internet access
will have rapid adoption in the U.S., possibly catching up to Europe. Wireless
technology will be incorporated into standard business operations, will be used
to deliver in-store competitive pricing, and remote e-mail anywhere, contributing
to a steep rise in online usage. (First part, silly prediction, second part happened)
![](../images/blank.gif) #07 - Free
Extends into B-to-B Space: "Free" continues as a B-to-C (business-to-consumer)
e-commerce model and extends into the B-to-B (business-to-business) world. (Didn't
significantly materialize) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#08 - Customer-Centric Corporate Restructuring: For the Global 2000 companies
that adapt and integrate the Internet into their businesses, a customer-centric
view will start reshaping their culture and infrastructure. (Only partially correct)
![](../images/blank.gif) #09 - Executive
Inability to Morph: The majority of Global 2000 corporations will recognize
that e-commerce is a reality they must embrace, but the majority of top executives
will be unable to "morph" their corporations into holistic Internet-enabled entities.
(Correct - few exceptions) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#10 - Expanded ECM Deployment: Brick-and-mortar companies will continue
to deploy e-commerce efforts that integrate with their core business. After Y2K
preparation and cleanup, e-commerce will hit the business world like a tidal wave.
Year 2000 will see a significant increase in the number of traditional companies
that extend their brands onto the Web and meld on and off-line marketing activities.
(Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
BONUS TREND: ![](../images/blank.gif)
Electronic Wallet Acceptance: ![](../images/blank.gif)
Major in-roads will be made in the acceptance of electronic wallets. Driven by
the success (and partial frustration) of the 1999 Christmas shopping season, consumers
will be looking for an easier, quicker shopping experience. (Didn't happen) |
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Chapter 10 |
1999 Predictions ![](../images/blank.gif)
#01 - While consumer-based security concerns continue to decrease, privacy concerns
will increase leading companies for focus on the non-monetary forms of currency
(time, attention & trust) (Partial, security concerns decreased while privacy
concerns increased, however not enough attention was placed on the non-monetary
forms of currency) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#02 - Companies will begin to recognize that the value-added activity begins after
the customer hits 'submit order' and that Customer service will become the point
of differentiation (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#03 - Movement of EC to a service industry rather than purely product or technology
driven...Outsourcing EC functions becomes very popular (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#04 - More top-level executives will focus on and be responsible for EC (Not yet,
where some companies are talking the talk only a small percent are walking the
walk) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#05 - Dramatic increase in access speeds and appliances (mobile devices, ATMs,
home/office appliances, etc.) connecting to the Web and integrated into EC applications
(Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#06 - Continue growth of affinity groups (e.g. Chemdex, Metalsite, Rosettanet,
etc.) (Correct - with a vengence) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#07 - Continued price transparency with auctions and other real-time pricing vehicles...will
see prices for scarce items increase and prices for commodities decrease (Correct)
![](../images/blank.gif) #08 - SHOPPING:
a) Wallets and "impulse buying" will take root, b) Price-driven buying: looking
for the best deals will be a big play and c) Special EC function keys will appear
on key boards (Partial: While price-driven buy occured, wallets didn't stick and
special EC functions didn't appear on key boards) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#09 - Will see a non US-based player dominating some EC space (Didn't materialize
yet) ![](../images/blank.gif) #10
- 1999 and 2000 will be the years of "show me the money", essentially companies
will continue to demonstrate success with EC while small to medium enterprises
(SME's) flock to the net (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
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Chapter 11 |
1998 Predictions ![](../images/blank.gif)
#01 - Other forms of currency take focus [Time, Attention, Trust] (Wrong, not
as much focus in '98 as expected) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#02 - Consumer acceptance of SSL security (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#03 - Login/password authentication will start going away (Wrong, not yet)
![](../images/blank.gif) #04 - XML
will start to replace HTML (Partially, most vendors have XML implementations,
slower than expected) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#05 - Too many solutions, particularly point solutions, will be consolidation,
but... (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#06 - Continued price transparency (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#07 - "True" eCommerce implementations will be driven from the top-down (Correct)
![](../images/blank.gif) #08 - eCommerce
implementations will focus on meeting business needs (Mostly, still a ways to
go) ![](../images/blank.gif) #09
- eCommerce implementations will be more than pretty pages (Correct) ![](../images/blank.gif)
#10 - The definition of eCommerce will expand (Mostly, still a ways to go)
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Part III |
Wrap-up | 143 | ![](../images/blank.gif)
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chapter 12 |
Conclusion | 145 | ![](../images/blank.gif)
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author | About
the Author | 151 | ![](../images/blank.gif)
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